Old National Bancorp (ONBPO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ONBPO undervalued?

ONBPO has a margin of safety of 42%: the stock closed at 24.86 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 43.22. 7 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 6.21 while DCF gives 108.32. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files ONBPO under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.

Nine valuation models for ONBPO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health ONBPO scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.2%, ROE 7.9%, ROA 0.9% - with debt at 0.88 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.2%.

The dividend yield is 2.30% at a payout ratio of 27%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Wealth Management Services 32%, Deposit Account 28%, Investment Advisory, Management and Adm… 20% (fiscal year FY2021).

Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 39: No options

ONBPO has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at 7k shares a day on a market cap of $9.6B, with a beta of 0.84; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Old National Bancorp reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 5 Nov 2026 (0.4375 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Banks - Regional

The 12 companies below are the closest to Old National Bancorp by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare ONBPO with 7 of them   All Financial Services stocks →