Oracle Corporation (ORCL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ORCL undervalued?

At 134.45 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ORCL trades 25% under the GLS average fair value of 178.67. 3 of the 6 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.

The 6 models disagree widely: DDM gives 29.43 while GLS Growth gives 390.52. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files ORCL under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for ORCL

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - ORCL passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.6%, ROE 40.2%, ROA 6.5% - with debt at 3.67 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 3.67 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is 1.49% with a payout ratio of 31% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Cloud And License Business 89%, Services Business 7%, Hardware Business 4% (quarter Q1 FY2027).

Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 20 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 83: Prime

ORCL scores 83 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 23/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (18/20).

Implied volatility is 58% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 2,147,084 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 30.0M shares a day on a market cap of $406.5B, with a beta of 1.77 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 9 Dec 2026, 54 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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