Stock fact sheet · data as of
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Engineering & Construction · United States · Blend
Is ORN undervalued?
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) closed at 8.77 on 16 Oct 2026, 55% above the GLS average fair value of 5.67. 5 of the 6 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between EPV (0.9935) and DCF (17.51). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ORN under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ORN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 17.51 | +100% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 2.87 | -67% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 5.11 | -42% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.24 | -75% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.31 | -40% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.9935 | -89% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.5567 | -94% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 15.00 | +71% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.1%, ROE 1.6%, ROA 0.6% - with debt at 0.41 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Marine 59%, Concrete 41% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 15 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.8 / 10 | ROE | 1.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.41 | ROA | 0.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 41: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 41 Orion Group Holdings, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 13/20, Stability 11/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 88% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (13 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 787 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 705k shares a day on a market cap of $355M, with a beta of 1.43 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -55% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.8/10 | |
| Premium | 13 / 20 | implied volatility 88% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 705k shares/day, $355M cap, beta 1.43 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Engineering & Construction
The 12 companies below are the closest to Orion Group Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Engineering & Construction industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHOE Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares | 17.71 | 0.0497 | -35535% | 6No options | $383M |
| DBMG DBM Global Inc. | 75.00 | 68,975.44 | +100% | 39No options | $315M |
| MTRX Matrix Service Company | 10.14 | 28.62 | +65% | 45Weak | $287M |
| BBCP Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc. | 9.12 | 5.82 | -57% | 45Weak | $460M |
| CDNL Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 15.92 | 69.35 | +77% | 45Weak | $243M |
| ITG ITG Inc. | 5.94 | 14.41 | +59% | 39No options | $720M |
| ESOA Energy Services of America Corporation | 9.29 | 10.61 | +12% | 39No options | $173M |
| BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. | 42.79 | 20.84 | -105% | 47Weak | $742M |
| AMRC Ameresco, Inc. | 20.09 | 14.59 | -38% | 36Weak | $1.1B |
| WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | 72.01 | 109.07 | +34% | 69Good | $1.1B |
| SHIM Shimmick Corp. | 2.60 | - | - | 24No options | $107M |
| VATE INNOVATE Corp. | 5.97 | 94.72 | +94% | 39No options | $81M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ORN
Is ORN undervalued right now?
No: at 8.77 the stock trades 55% above the GLS average fair value of 5.67 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ORN and what does it mean?
ORN scores 41 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ORN?
5.67 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Orion Group Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ORN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 84 listed contracts with 787 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 88% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.