Stock fact sheet · data as of
PagerDuty, Inc. (PD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol PD · Technology · Software - Application · United States · Blend
Is PD undervalued?
At 17.00 (close of 5 Nov 2026), PD trades 60% below the GLS average fair value of 42.98. That average comes from 7 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns PagerDuty, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 7 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 2.08 while GLS Growth gives 142.07. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for PD, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 60, growth score 64, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for PD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 30.83 | +81% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 12.46 | -27% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 23.36 | +37% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.08 | -88% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 142.07 | +736% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | 64.30 | +278% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 25.79 | +52% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1.37 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 12.50 | -26% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: PD passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.9 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 26.1%, ROE 68.6%, ROA 17.6% - with debt at 1.63 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.5%.
PagerDuty, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.9 / 10 | ROE | 68.6% |
| Debt / equity | 1.63 | ROA | 17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
PD scores 48 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 3.5 years to repay its debt (over 3), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium strong, moat fair, health fair, red flags strong, option trading fair, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 67% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 12,294 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.2M shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.97; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 3.5 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 60% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 67% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 3.9/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 2,546 contracts a day, 12,294 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.97, $1.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 24 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to PagerDuty, Inc. by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SECZ Securitize Corp. | 8.04 | - | - | 17Weak | $1.3B |
| WRD WeRide Inc. | 4.40 | - | - | 18Weak | $1.4B |
| RDVT Red Violet, Inc. | 80.00 | 36.25 | -121% | 35Weak | $1.3B |
| UPBD Upbound Group, Inc. | 24.14 | 116.00 | +79% | 50Fair | $1.4B |
| IBTA Ibotta, Inc. | 63.03 | 38.28 | -65% | 29Weak | $1.3B |
| ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. | 13.26 | 23.59 | +44% | 40Weak | $1.4B |
| GTM ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. | 4.26 | 45.98 | +91% | 38Weak | $1.2B |
| BTDR Bitdeer Technologies Group | 6.53 | - | - | 10Weak | $1.5B |
| EVCM EverCommerce Inc. | 8.52 | 5.39 | -58% | 23Weak | $1.5B |
| LZ LegalZoom.com, Inc. | 6.90 | 6.15 | -12% | 25Weak | $1.2B |
| RSKD Riskified Ltd. | 8.81 | 9.96 | +12% | 30Weak | $1.2B |
| LSPD Lightspeed Commerce Inc. | 11.56 | 7.64 | -51% | 29Weak | $1.5B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PD
Is PD undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 17.00 the stock is 60% below the average fair value of 42.98 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PD and what does it mean?
PD scores 48 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for PD?
42.98 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does PagerDuty, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 24 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 36 listed contracts with 12,294 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 67% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.