Stock fact sheet · data as of
Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol PONY · Technology · Software - Application · China · ADR · Speculative
PONY is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares, whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.
Is PONY undervalued?
PONY closed at 4.75 on 5 Nov 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 0.2176. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter keeps names like this under 70.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files PONY under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for PONY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 0.2176 | -95% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 2.64 | -45% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 20.50 | +332% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: PONY passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.6 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -8.0%, ROE -8.1%, ROA -7.4% - with debt at 0.02 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 0.31% with a payout ratio of 0% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Product 67%, Engineering Solution Services 33% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -8.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.6 / 10 | ROE | -8.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.02 | ROA | -7.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -37.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 24: Weak
PONY scores 24 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 2083% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 4.75 (under $5), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium good, moat fair, health weak, red flags fair, option trading fair, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 74% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 9,701 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.5M shares a day on a market cap of $2.1B, with a beta of 4.02 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 2083% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 4.75 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 2083% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 74% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 3.6/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,645 contracts a day, 9,701 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 4.02, $2.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares reports earnings on 18 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DV DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | 13.55 | 14.81 | +8% | 27Weak | $2.1B |
| KARO Karooooo Ltd. | 65.07 | 36.30 | -79% | 22No options | $2.0B |
| SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. | 28.52 | - | - | 25Weak | $2.1B |
| BL BlackLine, Inc. | 34.39 | 32.56 | -6% | 39Weak | $2.0B |
| DBD Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated | 57.98 | 101.22 | +43% | 46Weak | $1.9B |
| SVMB Jingbo Technology, Inc. | 3.50 | - | - | 11No options | $1.9B |
| SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. | 4.32 | - | - | 20Weak | $1.9B |
| AMPL Amplitude, Inc. | 17.19 | 5.61 | -206% | 28Weak | $2.3B |
| ADEA Adeia Inc. | 16.93 | 20.92 | +19% | 71Good | $1.9B |
| AI C3.ai, Inc. | 11.96 | - | - | 24Weak | $1.9B |
| PLUS ePlus inc. | 90.47 | 51.97 | -74% | 40Weak | $2.4B |
| KC Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited | 8.10 | 25.77 | +69% | 33Weak | $2.4B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PONY
Is PONY undervalued right now?
No: at 4.75 the stock trades 2083% above the GLS average fair value of 0.2176 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of PONY and what does it mean?
PONY scores 24 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 9. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for PONY?
0.2176 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 18 Nov 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PONY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 70 listed contracts with 9,701 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 74% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.
Is PONY an ADR?
Yes. PONY is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares, whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.