Stock fact sheet · data as of
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is RRGB undervalued?
RRGB has a margin of safety of 55%: the stock closed at 8.50 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 18.84. 1 of the 2 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The average is built from just 2 models (DCF, 10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files RRGB under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for RRGB
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 31.69 | +273% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 5.98 | -30% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -30.73 | -462% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 8.00 | -6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 1.2/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -5.7%, ROE 21.9%, ROA -4.1% - with debt at -4.84 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Food and Beverage 98%, Franchise 1%, Products And Services, Gift Card Breaka… 0% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.2 / 10 | ROE | 21.9% |
| Debt / equity | -4.84 | ROA | -4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 13/20, Stability 2/20 - show where: Stability (2/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 89% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (13 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 5,181 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 98k shares a day on a market cap of $161M, with a beta of 2.49 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 2 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 55% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.2/10 | |
| Premium | 13 / 20 | implied volatility 89% | |
| Stability | 2 / 20 | 98k shares/day, $161M cap, beta 2.49 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (after the close), 24 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. | 8.27 | 2.90 | -186% | 48Weak | $149M |
| RICK RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | 25.88 | 52.44 | +51% | 45Weak | $198M |
| JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | 12.66 | 22.56 | +44% | 75Good | $243M |
| BDL Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 49.50 | 40.78 | -21% | 31No options | $92M |
| NDLS Noodles & Company | 13.85 | 22.69 | +39% | 39No options | $83M |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. | 4.66 | 4.95 | +6% | 63Fair | $338M |
| MB MasterBeef Group | 4.45 | 7.42 | +40% | 39No options | $76M |
| VENU Venu Holding Corporation | 1.13 | - | - | 33Weak | $64M |
| NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 101.88 | 73.79 | -38% | 26No options | $417M |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 33.00 | 31.86 | -4% | 59Fair | $418M |
| GENK GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. | 1.69 | 296.32 | +99% | 39No options | $56M |
| KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. | 39.12 | 23.10 | -69% | 21No options | $475M |
⚖ Compare RRGB with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about RRGB
Is RRGB undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 8.50 the stock is 55% below the average fair value of 18.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of RRGB and what does it mean?
RRGB scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for RRGB?
18.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (after the close), 24 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does RRGB have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 72 listed contracts with 5,181 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 89% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.