Stock fact sheet · data as of
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · High Growth
Is BRCB undervalued?
BRCB closed at 8.27 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 2.90. Only 0 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between EPV (0.8797) and GLS Growth (4.85). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files BRCB under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for BRCB
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 2.24 | -73% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 4.53 | -45% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.98 | -76% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 4.85 | -41% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.8797 | -89% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.63 | -229% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 11.20 | +35% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -0.0%, ROE -0.1%, ROA -0.0% - with debt at 3.59 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 3.59 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product and Service, Other 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | -0.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | -0.1% |
| Debt / equity | 3.59 | ROA | -0.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 48 Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 10/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 65% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 2,625 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 516k shares a day on a market cap of $149M, with a beta of -0.70 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -186% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 65% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 516k shares/day, $149M cap, beta -0.70 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026, 25 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. | 8.50 | 18.84 | +55% | 45Weak | $161M |
| RICK RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | 25.88 | 52.44 | +51% | 45Weak | $198M |
| BDL Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 49.50 | 40.78 | -21% | 31No options | $92M |
| JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | 12.66 | 22.56 | +44% | 75Good | $243M |
| NDLS Noodles & Company | 13.85 | 22.69 | +39% | 39No options | $83M |
| MB MasterBeef Group | 4.45 | 7.42 | +40% | 39No options | $76M |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. | 4.66 | 4.95 | +6% | 63Fair | $338M |
| VENU Venu Holding Corporation | 1.13 | - | - | 33Weak | $64M |
| GENK GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. | 1.69 | 296.32 | +99% | 39No options | $56M |
| NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 101.88 | 73.79 | -38% | 26No options | $417M |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 33.00 | 31.86 | -4% | 59Fair | $418M |
| KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. | 39.12 | 23.10 | -69% | 21No options | $475M |
⚖ Compare BRCB with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BRCB
Is BRCB undervalued right now?
No: at 8.27 the stock trades 186% above the GLS average fair value of 2.90 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of BRCB and what does it mean?
BRCB scores 48 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BRCB?
2.90 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026, 25 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BRCB have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 72 listed contracts with 2,625 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 65% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.