Stock fact sheet · data as of
Sunrun Inc. (RUN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Solar · United States · Blend
Is RUN undervalued?
RUN closed at 7.30 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 4.34. Only 1 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.8043) and Graham Number (10.46). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files RUN under Blend.
Nine valuation models for RUN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 10.46 | +43% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 5.38 | -26% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.33 | -82% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.8043 | -89% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 3.70 | -49% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -71.42 | -1079% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.45 | +98% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Sunrun Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.5%, ROE 14.4%, ROA 1.9% - with debt at 4.75 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 4.75 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Sunrun Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Service 31%, Customer Agreements 29%, Product 19% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.3 / 10 | ROE | 14.4% |
| Debt / equity | 4.75 | ROA | 1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -78.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 39 Sunrun Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 12/20, Stability 13/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 92% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (12 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 656,062 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 8.9M shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 2.44 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -68% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.3/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 92% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 8.9M shares/day, $1.7B cap, beta 2.44 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Solar
The 12 companies below are the closest to Sunrun Inc. by market cap within the Solar industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | 30.52 | 36.06 | +15% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | 7.84 | 3.39 | -131% | 37Weak | $1.3B |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | 30.82 | 19.45 | -58% | 50Fair | $4.1B |
| CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. | 10.57 | - | - | 45Weak | $718M |
| ARRY Array Technologies, Inc. | 3.57 | 21.60 | +83% | 45Weak | $549M |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | 83.45 | 84.54 | +1% | 68Good | $12.7B |
| TOYO TOYO Co., Ltd. | 4.17 | 136.45 | +97% | 69Good | $178M |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | 178.81 | 446.96 | +60% | 91Prime | $19.2B |
| JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. | 8.36 | 21,892.90 | +100% | 45Weak | $109M |
| TYGO Tigo Energy, Inc. | 0.8748 | 4.30 | +80% | 39No options | $67M |
| SPWR SunPower Inc. | 0.2535 | - | - | 32No options | $43M |
| SPRU Spruce Power Holding Corporation | 1.47 | 42.74 | +97% | 45Weak | $28M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about RUN
Is RUN undervalued right now?
No: at 7.30 the stock trades 68% above the GLS average fair value of 4.34 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of RUN and what does it mean?
RUN scores 39 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for RUN?
4.34 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Sunrun Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does RUN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 484 listed contracts with 656,062 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 92% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.