Stock fact sheet · data as of
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Retail · United States · High Yield Income
Is SPG undervalued?
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) closed at 198.70 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 185.06 (7.4% above fair value). 5 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 50.00 while GLS Growth gives 320.14. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files SPG under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for SPG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 217.89 | +10% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 66.17 | -67% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 215.96 | +9% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 50.00 | -75% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 320.14 | +61% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 217.58 | +10% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 288.79 | +45% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 130.96 | -34% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 158.01 | -20% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -99.35 | -150% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 218.45 | +10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - SPG passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.6 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.4%, ROE 88.6%, ROA 11.4% - with debt at 5.60 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.0%. Debt of 5.60 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 4.48% (payout ratio 73%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Real Estate 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.6 / 10 | ROE | 88.6% |
| Debt / equity | 5.60 | ROA | 11.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.0% | Payout ratio | 73% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 65: Good
SPG scores 65 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 9/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (16/20) and how easily the stock trades (18/20). Value (9/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 45,849 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.2M shares a day on a market cap of $64.3B, with a beta of 1.33 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 9 / 25 | -7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.6/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.2M shares/day, $64.3B cap, beta 1.33 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Simon Property Group, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Realty Income Corporation | 55.55 | 31.27 | -78% | 51Fair | $52.6B |
| KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | 22.67 | 21.24 | -7% | 65Good | $15.2B |
| REG Regency Centers Corporation | 71.77 | 48.52 | -48% | 56Fair | $13.1B |
| REGCO Regency Centers Corporation | 21.35 | 38.84 | +45% | 39No options | $13.1B |
| REGCP Regency Centers Corporation | 21.82 | 39.05 | +44% | 39No options | $13.1B |
| FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | 105.68 | 74.69 | -41% | 54Fair | $9.2B |
| BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | 27.43 | 23.66 | -16% | 65Good | $8.4B |
| ADC Agree Realty Corporation | 66.56 | 51.60 | -29% | 58Fair | $8.3B |
| NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | 41.15 | 37.64 | -9% | 60Fair | $7.8B |
| MAC The Macerich Company | 23.09 | 10.03 | -130% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| KRG Kite Realty Group Trust | 24.52 | 37.10 | +34% | 86Prime | $4.9B |
| PECO Phillips Edison & Co. | 37.58 | 31.75 | -18% | 58Fair | $4.8B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SPG
Is SPG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 198.70 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 185.06 (7.4% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of SPG and what does it mean?
SPG scores 65 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for SPG?
185.06 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Simon Property Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does SPG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 650 listed contracts with 45,849 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.