Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (SPWH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is SPWH undervalued?

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (SPWH) closed at 1.07 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 2 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 12.05, which puts the price 91% below it. 2 of the 2 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files SPWH under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for SPWH

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: SPWH passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -8.1%, ROE -26.5%, ROA -6.6% - with debt at 2.26 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 71.2%. Debt of 2.26 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

SPWH scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 9/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 164%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 3,379 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 329k shares a day on a market cap of $42M, with a beta of 0.44 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 3 Dec 2026, 48 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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