Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is TAK undervalued?

TAK has a margin of safety of 98%: the stock closed at 19.01 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 1,108.41. 5 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 1.86 while 10 Cap gives 4,858.67. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files TAK under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.

Nine valuation models for TAK

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - TAK passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.6%, ROE 2.6%, ROA 1.3% - with debt at 0.63 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.1%.

The dividend yield is 3.27% at a payout ratio of 175%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Gastroenterology 31%, PDT Immunology 24%, Rare Diseases 17% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 82: Prime

TAK scores 82 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).

Implied volatility is 46% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 4,482 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 4.7M shares a day on a market cap of $60.3B, with a beta of 0.09 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

The 12 companies below are the closest to Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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