Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified · Canada · Value
Is TD undervalued?
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) closed at 117.63 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 158.47, so the price sits 26% below it. 5 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 19.48 while Payback Time gives 386.90. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files TD under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for TD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 204.06 | +73% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 130.68 | +11% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 95.48 | -19% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.48 | -83% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 120.09 | +2% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 328.06 | +179% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 386.90 | +229% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 64.74 | -45% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 76.71 | -35% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1,043.28 | -987% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 89.52 | -24% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health TD scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.2 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.6%, ROE 16.1%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 5.19 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.5%. Debt of 5.19 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 2.63% at a payout ratio of 48%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 16 Jul 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.2 / 10 | ROE | 16.1% |
| Debt / equity | 5.19 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.5% | Payout ratio | 48% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 75: Good
TD scores 75 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 23/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (8/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Premium (8/20) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 23% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (8 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 79,141 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $198.7B, with a beta of 0.87; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 26% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.2/10 | |
| Premium | 8 / 20 | implied volatility 23% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.4M shares/day, $198.7B cap, beta 0.87 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Dec 2026, 48 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Toronto-Dominion Bank by market cap within the Banks - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | 13.41 | 37.09 | +64% | 80Prime | $196.9B |
| C Citigroup Inc. | 123.19 | 162.45 | +24% | 71Good | $206.6B |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company | 80.91 | 139.23 | +42% | 77Good | $244.7B |
| MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | 21.86 | 703.78 | +97% | 94Prime | $250.5B |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | 193.82 | 375.59 | +48% | 76Good | $269.4B |
| UBS UBS Group AG | 47.15 | 75.19 | +37% | 85Prime | $144.4B |
| BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | 25.95 | 91.89 | +72% | 82Prime | $144.3B |
| HSBC HSBC Holdings plc | 94.54 | 140.80 | +33% | 81Prime | $327.3B |
| BMO Bank of Montreal | 166.05 | 311.77 | +47% | 74Good | $115.4B |
| BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia | 91.12 | 169.08 | +46% | 74Good | $111.1B |
| BACRP Bank of America Corporation PFD SER B 7% | 300.00 | 483.13 | +38% | 39No options | $361.5B |
| BAC Bank of America Corporation | 51.70 | 156.82 | +67% | 82Prime | $361.5B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TD
Is TD undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 117.63 the stock trades 26% below the average fair value of 158.47 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of TD and what does it mean?
TD scores 75 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TD?
158.47 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Toronto-Dominion Bank report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Dec 2026 (before the open), 48 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 388 listed contracts with 79,141 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 23% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.