Stock fact sheet · data as of
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals · Canada · High Growth
Is TFPM undervalued?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) closed at 29.63 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 7 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 39.17, so the price sits 24% below it. 2 of the 7 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between DDM (3.42) and GLS Growth (122.13). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TFPM under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for TFPM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 17.66 | -40% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 22.28 | -25% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 62.88 | +112% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 23.68 | -20% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 122.13 | +312% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 3.42 | -88% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 22.17 | -25% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.4096 | -99% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 39.50 | +33% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability TFPM scores 6.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 12.0%, ROA 11.6% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 0.78% with a payout ratio of 11% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 12.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 11.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.6% | Payout ratio | 11% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 77: Good
With a Wheel Score of 77 - the Good band - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 23/25, Health 11/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 15/20; Health (11/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 15,219 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 371k shares a day on a market cap of $6.1B, with a beta of 0.31 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 24% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 43% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 371k shares/day, $6.1B cap, beta 0.31 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Other Precious Metals
The 12 companies below are the closest to Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. by market cap within the Other Precious Metals industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OICT Oicintra, Inc. | 11.26 | - | - | 28No options | $6.2B |
| SBSW Sibanye Stillwater Limited | 9.42 | 113.71 | +92% | 83Prime | $6.7B |
| BVN Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. | 31.15 | 75.34 | +59% | 92Prime | $7.9B |
| HL Hecla Mining Company | 15.56 | 11.63 | -34% | 65Good | $10.5B |
| PPTA Perpetua Resources Corp. | 17.38 | 8.31 | -109% | 41Weak | $2.2B |
| SIND Sinda Ltd. | 13.24 | 0.0540 | -24440% | 9No options | $2.1B |
| SSMR Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Company | 12.34 | 0.1875 | -6480% | 24Weak | $1.8B |
| TMC TMC the metals company inc. | 2.63 | 0.2079 | -1165% | 31Weak | $1.2B |
| SLSR Solaris Resources Inc | 6.44 | 1.17 | -449% | 29Weak | $1.1B |
| MUX McEwen Mining Inc. | 16.21 | 38.28 | +58% | 71Good | $968M |
| ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | 5.19 | 5.18 | -0% | 64Fair | $882M |
| MTA Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. | 8.10 | 0.8525 | -850% | 43Weak | $757M |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TFPM
Is TFPM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 29.63 the stock trades 24% below the average fair value of 39.17 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of TFPM and what does it mean?
TFPM scores 77 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TFPM?
39.17 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TFPM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 84 listed contracts with 15,219 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 43% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.