Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies · United States · High Growth
Is TTD undervalued?
TTD has a margin of safety of 64%: the stock closed at 12.18 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 34.30. 6 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 8 models disagree widely: EPV gives 9.65 while Payback Time gives 72.74. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files TTD under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for TTD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 34.37 | +182% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 10.37 | -15% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 31.86 | +162% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 12.60 | +3% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 53.19 | +337% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 49.61 | +307% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 72.74 | +497% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 9.65 | -21% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 3.37 | -72% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.68 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health TTD scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 15.2%, ROE 17.8%, ROA 7.2% - with debt at 0.18 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.9%.
The Trade Desk, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 3/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 14 Sep 2026; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 18 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.4 / 10 | ROE | 17.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.18 | ROA | 7.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 3 / 10 |
Wheel Score 87: Prime
TTD scores 87 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (16/20) and how easily the stock trades (19/20).
Implied volatility is 77% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (16 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 921,986 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 17.7M shares a day on a market cap of $5.8B, with a beta of 0.99; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 64% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.4/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 77% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 17.7M shares/day, $5.8B cap, beta 0.99 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Advertising Agencies
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Trade Desk, Inc. by market cap within the Advertising Agencies industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPP WPP plc | 25.57 | 83.12 | +69% | 45Weak | $5.5B |
| MGNI Magnite, Inc. | 24.48 | 21.95 | -12% | 63Fair | $3.5B |
| LFTO Liftoff Mobile, Inc. Common Stock | 16.94 | 11.66 | -45% | 32Weak | $2.9B |
| PTRN Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock | 17.31 | 10.83 | -60% | 45Weak | $2.7B |
| STGW Stagwell Inc. | 8.78 | 5.74 | -53% | 51Fair | $2.1B |
| ZD Ziff Davis, Inc. | 57.42 | 280.31 | +80% | 78Good | $2.0B |
| OMC Omnicom Group Inc. | 80.72 | 77.99 | -3% | 72Good | $22.1B |
| CCO Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. | 2.42 | 13.81 | +82% | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| QNST QuinStreet, Inc. | 15.64 | 41.55 | +62% | 75Good | $895M |
| CRTO Criteo S.A. | 15.76 | 99.76 | +84% | 78Good | $772M |
| NEXN Nexxen International Ltd. | 9.03 | 11.13 | +19% | 65Good | $514M |
| ADV Advantage Solutions Inc. | 29.36 | 65.07 | +55% | 42Weak | $390M |
⚖ Compare TTD with 7 of them All Communication Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TTD
Is TTD undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 12.18 the stock is 64% below the average fair value of 34.30 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of TTD and what does it mean?
TTD scores 87 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TTD?
34.30 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Trade Desk, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TTD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 854 listed contracts with 921,986 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 77% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.