Stock fact sheet · data as of
Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services · United States · High Growth
Is WLFC undervalued?
WLFC has a margin of safety of 66%: the stock closed at 37.89 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 112.00. 6 of the 7 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 7 models disagree widely: DDM gives 7.84 while GLS Growth gives 265.90. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files WLFC under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for WLFC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 59.76 | +58% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 248.44 | +556% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 108.58 | +187% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 265.90 | +602% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 45.23 | +19% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 7.84 | -79% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 48.26 | +27% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -126.14 | -433% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 75.50 | +99% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health WLFC scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.3%, ROE 15.7%, ROA 2.8% - with debt at 3.74 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 3.74 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.41% with a payout ratio of 18% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Spare Parts And Equipment Sales 67%, Maintenance Services 29%, Other Product and Service Revenue 4% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.4 / 10 | ROE | 15.7% |
| Debt / equity | 3.74 | ROA | 2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -13.9% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
WLFC scores 81 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (10/20).
Implied volatility is 60% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (20 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 108 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 246k shares a day on a market cap of $801M, with a beta of 0.73 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 66% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 60% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 246k shares/day, $801M cap, beta 0.73 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Rental & Leasing Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Willis Lease Finance Corporation by market cap within the Rental & Leasing Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | 1.83 | - | - | 40Weak | $578M |
| LIME Neutron Holdings, Inc. | 27.07 | - | - | 25No options | $1.7B |
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | 13.97 | 16.38 | +15% | 45Weak | $1.8B |
| CTOS Custom Truck One Source, Inc. | 9.20 | 3.02 | -205% | 52Fair | $2.1B |
| MGRC McGrath RentCorp | 113.19 | 136.29 | +17% | 75Good | $2.8B |
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | 16.19 | 33.49 | +52% | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| EQPT EquipmentShare.com Inc. | 14.41 | 5.99 | -140% | 44Weak | $3.7B |
| CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. | 109.77 | - | - | 45Weak | $3.9B |
| HRI Herc Holdings Inc. | 124.00 | 76.54 | -62% | 48Weak | $4.1B |
| GATX GATX Corporation | 165.09 | 146.59 | -13% | 60Fair | $5.8B |
| R Ryder System, Inc. | 237.82 | 293.38 | +19% | 78Good | $9.1B |
| UHAL U-Haul Holding Company | 55.92 | 13.96 | -301% | 54Fair | $9.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WLFC
Is WLFC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 37.89 the stock is 66% below the average fair value of 112.00 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of WLFC and what does it mean?
WLFC scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for WLFC?
112.00 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Willis Lease Finance Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does WLFC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 112 listed contracts with 108 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 60% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.