Stock fact sheet · data as of
Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services · United States · High Growth
Is HRI undervalued?
Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) closed at 124.00 on 16 Oct 2026, 62% above the GLS average fair value of 76.54. 7 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between EPV (16.30) and 10 Cap (190.96). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files HRI under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for HRI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 43.22 | -65% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 83.92 | -32% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 36.68 | -70% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 89.81 | -28% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 190.96 | +54% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 110.26 | -11% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 41.20 | -67% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 16.30 | -87% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -325.20 | -362% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 173.67 | +40% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Herc Holdings Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.0%, ROE 0.1%, ROA 0.0% - with debt at 5.73 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.2%. Debt of 5.73 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 2.26% at a payout ratio of 190%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Equipment Rental 82%, Other Rental Revenue 8%, Sales of Revenue Earning Equipment 8% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 0.1% |
| Debt / equity | 5.73 | ROA | 0.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.2% | Payout ratio | 190% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 48 Herc Holdings Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 12/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 64% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 3,396 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 572k shares a day on a market cap of $4.1B, with a beta of 2.05 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -62% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 64% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 572k shares/day, $4.1B cap, beta 2.05 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Herc Holdings Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Rental & Leasing Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Herc Holdings Inc. by market cap within the Rental & Leasing Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. | 109.77 | - | - | 45Weak | $3.9B |
| EQPT EquipmentShare.com Inc. | 14.41 | 5.99 | -140% | 44Weak | $3.7B |
| GATX GATX Corporation | 165.09 | 146.59 | -13% | 60Fair | $5.8B |
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | 16.19 | 33.49 | +52% | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| MGRC McGrath RentCorp | 113.19 | 136.29 | +17% | 75Good | $2.8B |
| CTOS Custom Truck One Source, Inc. | 9.20 | 3.02 | -205% | 52Fair | $2.1B |
| R Ryder System, Inc. | 237.82 | 293.38 | +19% | 78Good | $9.1B |
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | 13.97 | 16.38 | +15% | 45Weak | $1.8B |
| UHAL U-Haul Holding Company | 55.92 | 13.96 | -301% | 54Fair | $9.7B |
| LIME Neutron Holdings, Inc. | 27.07 | - | - | 25No options | $1.7B |
| UHAL-B U-Haul Holding Company | 49.84 | 13.61 | -266% | 36No options | $10.9B |
| WLFC Willis Lease Finance Corporation | 37.89 | 112.00 | +66% | 81Prime | $801M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HRI
Is HRI undervalued right now?
No: at 124.00 the stock trades 62% above the GLS average fair value of 76.54 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of HRI and what does it mean?
HRI scores 48 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HRI?
76.54 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Herc Holdings Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HRI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 280 listed contracts with 3,396 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 64% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.