Stock fact sheet · data as of
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · United States · Value
Is ACEL undervalued?
ACEL has a margin of safety of 32%: the stock closed at 11.06 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 16.36. 4 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (4.56) and Payback Time (40.41). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ACEL under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for ACEL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 11.36 | +3% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 7.33 | -34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 14.66 | +33% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.56 | -59% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.42 | -42% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 38.45 | +248% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 40.41 | +265% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 7.68 | -31% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -6.28 | -157% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.33 | +30% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Accel Entertainment, Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.7%, ROE 19.1%, ROA 4.6% - with debt at 2.33 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 18.7%. Debt of 2.33 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Video Gaming 94%, ATM Fees And Other Revenue 4%, Amusement 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 19.1% |
| Debt / equity | 2.33 | ROA | 4.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 18.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - Accel Entertainment, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 18/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 12/20; Moat (7/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 86% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (14 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,587 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 546k shares a day on a market cap of $898M, with a beta of 1.07; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 32% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 86% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 546k shares/day, $898M cap, beta 1.07 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
The 12 companies below are the closest to Accel Entertainment, Inc. by market cap within the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALY Bally's Corporation | 13.42 | - | - | 38Weak | $570M |
| MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 4.32 | 25.35 | +83% | 77Good | $1.7B |
| BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC | 9.70 | 32.05 | +70% | 80Prime | $1.8B |
| CDRO Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. | 9.63 | 12.79 | +25% | 39No options | $438M |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | 14.52 | 21.24 | +32% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 115.54 | 96.49 | -20% | 60Fair | $2.1B |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 49.77 | 91.51 | +46% | 80Prime | $2.9B |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 106.23 | 42.56 | -150% | 43Weak | $3.7B |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | 70.97 | 385.85 | +82% | 85Prime | $5.2B |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | 18.49 | 15.97 | -16% | 61Fair | $5.2B |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | 152.96 | 112.59 | -36% | 56Fair | $5.5B |
| MRDN Meridian Holdings Inc. | 11.36 | 37.93 | +70% | 45Weak | $144M |
⚖ Compare ACEL with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ACEL
Is ACEL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 11.06 the stock is 32% below the average fair value of 16.36 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ACEL and what does it mean?
ACEL scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ACEL?
16.36 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Accel Entertainment, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ACEL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 94 listed contracts with 1,587 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 86% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.