Stock fact sheet · data as of
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · United States · High Yield Income
Is MTN undervalued?
At 152.96 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MTN trades 36% over the GLS average fair value of 112.59, with 4 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (12.09) and 10 Cap (240.71). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MTN under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for MTN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 175.63 | +15% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 25.01 | -84% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 154.55 | +1% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 61.48 | -60% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 12.09 | -92% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 240.71 | +57% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 167.34 | +9% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 130.66 | -15% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 45.88 | -70% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -114.85 | -175% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 144.82 | -5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Vail Resorts, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.0%, ROE 61.3%, ROA 2.7% - with debt at 14.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.7%. Debt of 14.23 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 5.81% (payout ratio 215%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Lodging revenue (excluding payroll cost… 54%, Owned Hotel Revenue 20%, Other Lodging Revenue 10% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.6 / 10 | ROE | 61.3% |
| Debt / equity | 14.23 | ROA | 2.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.7% | Payout ratio | 215% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 56: Fair
A Wheel Score of 56 puts Vail Resorts, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 17/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 27,547 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 947k shares a day on a market cap of $5.5B, with a beta of 0.77 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -36% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 947k shares/day, $5.5B cap, beta 0.77 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 9 Dec 2026, 54 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
The 12 companies below are the closest to Vail Resorts, Inc. by market cap within the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited | 11.12 | 13.44 | +17% | 79Good | $5.6B |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | 18.49 | 15.97 | -16% | 61Fair | $5.2B |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | 82.15 | 109.00 | +25% | 85Prime | $5.7B |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | 70.97 | 385.85 | +82% | 85Prime | $5.2B |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | 29.25 | 96.50 | +70% | 45Weak | $6.0B |
| LNWO Light & Wonder, Inc. | 81.71 | 103.62 | +21% | 39No options | $6.3B |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | 29.48 | 56.64 | +48% | 87Prime | $7.4B |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | 73.73 | 169.18 | +56% | 84Prime | $7.6B |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 106.23 | 42.56 | -150% | 43Weak | $3.7B |
| DKNG DraftKings Inc. | 19.31 | 63.10 | +69% | 45Weak | $9.6B |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 49.77 | 91.51 | +46% | 80Prime | $2.9B |
| FLUT Flutter Entertainment plc | 76.18 | 133.91 | +43% | 45Weak | $13.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MTN
Is MTN undervalued right now?
No: at 152.96 the stock trades 36% above the GLS average fair value of 112.59 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MTN and what does it mean?
MTN scores 56 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MTN?
112.59 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Vail Resorts, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Dec 2026 (after the close), 54 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MTN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 346 listed contracts with 27,547 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.