Stock fact sheet · data as of
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · United States · Value
Is MCRI undervalued?
At 115.54 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MCRI trades 20% over the GLS average fair value of 96.49. 3 of the 9 models land above the price and 6 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (4 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
There is a wide gap between DDM (17.66) and 10 Cap (194.33). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MCRI under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for MCRI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 73.00 | -37% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 68.30 | -41% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 168.06 | +45% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 58.66 | -49% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 34.96 | -70% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 194.33 | +68% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 182.09 | +58% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.66 | -85% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 71.33 | -38% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.56 | -102% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 122.00 | +6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability MCRI scores 6.5/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 18.0%, ROE 18.9%, ROA 14.2% - with debt at 0.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.04% with a payout ratio of 19% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Casino 57%, Food and beverage 23%, Hotel 15% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.5 / 10 | ROE | 18.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.05 | ROA | 14.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.5% | Payout ratio | 19% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 60: Fair
A Wheel Score of 60 puts Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 4/25, Health 16/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 10/20; the weakest part is Value (4/25).
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,506 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 172k shares a day on a market cap of $2.1B, with a beta of 1.41 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 4 / 25 | -20% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 172k shares/day, $2.1B cap, beta 1.41 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
The 12 companies below are the closest to Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. by market cap within the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | 14.52 | 21.24 | +32% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC | 9.70 | 32.05 | +70% | 80Prime | $1.8B |
| MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 4.32 | 25.35 | +83% | 77Good | $1.7B |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 49.77 | 91.51 | +46% | 80Prime | $2.9B |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 106.23 | 42.56 | -150% | 43Weak | $3.7B |
| ACEL Accel Entertainment, Inc. | 11.06 | 16.36 | +32% | 76Good | $898M |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | 70.97 | 385.85 | +82% | 85Prime | $5.2B |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | 18.49 | 15.97 | -16% | 61Fair | $5.2B |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | 152.96 | 112.59 | -36% | 56Fair | $5.5B |
| SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited | 11.12 | 13.44 | +17% | 79Good | $5.6B |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | 82.15 | 109.00 | +25% | 85Prime | $5.7B |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | 29.25 | 96.50 | +70% | 45Weak | $6.0B |
⚖ Compare MCRI with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MCRI
Is MCRI undervalued right now?
No: at 115.54 the stock trades 20% above the GLS average fair value of 96.49 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of MCRI and what does it mean?
MCRI scores 60 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MCRI?
96.49 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MCRI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 236 listed contracts with 1,506 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.