Stock fact sheet · data as of
AGCO Corporation (AGCO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Agricultural - Machinery · United States · Value
Is AGCO undervalued?
AGCO closed at 106.20 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 107.33 - 1.1% below fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 3 of 9 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 12.48 while Graham Growth gives 304.02. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AGCO under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for AGCO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 79.28 | -25% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 98.43 | -7% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 304.02 | +186% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 123.58 | +16% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 12.48 | -88% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 163.87 | +54% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 83.58 | -21% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.36 | -84% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 83.36 | -22% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -30.83 | -129% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 129.14 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health AGCO scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.4%, ROE 17.0%, ROA 6.1% - with debt at 0.63 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.4%.
The dividend yield is 1.11% with a payout ratio of 16% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Tractors 76%, Replacement Part Sales 24%, Grain Storage and Protein Production Sy… 0% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 17.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.63 | ROA | 6.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.4% | Payout ratio | 16% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 74: Good
AGCO scores 74 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 13/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20). Moat (7/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 5,190 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 623k shares a day on a market cap of $7.4B, with a beta of 1.07; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 1% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 48% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 623k shares/day, $7.4B cap, beta 1.07 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AGCO Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Agricultural - Machinery
The 12 companies below are the closest to AGCO Corporation by market cap within the Agricultural - Machinery industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSK Oshkosh Corp | 128.71 | 315.98 | +59% | 81Prime | $7.9B |
| FSS Federal Signal Corporation | 113.47 | 120.11 | +6% | 78Good | $6.9B |
| CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | 11.95 | 8.78 | -36% | 62Fair | $14.8B |
| LNN Lindsay Corporation | 110.59 | 131.61 | +16% | 72Good | $1.1B |
| AEBI Aebi Schmidt Holding AG | 11.22 | 7.24 | -55% | 24No options | $871M |
| WNC Wabash National Corporation | 12.98 | 7.18 | -81% | 36Weak | $529M |
| TWI Titan International, Inc. | 6.71 | 15.65 | +57% | 45Weak | $433M |
| DE Deere & Company | 650.67 | 343.91 | -89% | 63Fair | $175.4B |
| CAT Caterpillar Inc. | 735.64 | 429.54 | -71% | 67Good | $338.2B |
| ARTW Art's-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 3.21 | 0.4222 | -661% | 17No options | $17M |
| CLEV Concrete Leveling Systems, Inc. | 0.7100 | - | - | 33No options | $10M |
| HYFM Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. | 0.7798 | - | - | 24No options | $4M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGCO
Is AGCO undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 106.20 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 107.33 (1.1% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AGCO and what does it mean?
AGCO scores 74 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AGCO?
107.33 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AGCO Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGCO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 234 listed contracts with 5,190 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.