Stock fact sheet · data as of
Federal Signal Corporation (FSS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Agricultural - Machinery · United States · High Growth
Is FSS undervalued?
Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) closed at 113.47 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 120.11 (5.5% below fair value). 5 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 8.68 while GLS Growth gives 286.90. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files FSS under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for FSS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 120.04 | +6% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 51.09 | -55% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 144.37 | +27% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 53.91 | -52% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 286.90 | +153% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 143.35 | +26% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 220.55 | +94% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.68 | -92% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 52.07 | -54% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.57 | -102% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 140.00 | +23% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - FSS passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 9.2 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.5%, ROE 17.8%, ROA 10.3% - with debt at 0.43 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.9%.
The dividend yield is 0.52% with a payout ratio of 12% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Environmental Solutions 86%, Safety And Security Systems 14% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 9.2 / 10 | ROE | 17.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.43 | ROA | 10.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.9% | Payout ratio | 12% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 78: Good
FSS scores 78 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 15/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (14/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20). Value (15/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,427 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 668k shares a day on a market cap of $6.9B, with a beta of 1.23 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 6% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 14 / 15 | moat 9.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 668k shares/day, $6.9B cap, beta 1.23 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Federal Signal Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Agricultural - Machinery
The 12 companies below are the closest to Federal Signal Corporation by market cap within the Agricultural - Machinery industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO AGCO Corporation | 106.20 | 107.33 | +1% | 74Good | $7.4B |
| OSK Oshkosh Corp | 128.71 | 315.98 | +59% | 81Prime | $7.9B |
| CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | 11.95 | 8.78 | -36% | 62Fair | $14.8B |
| LNN Lindsay Corporation | 110.59 | 131.61 | +16% | 72Good | $1.1B |
| AEBI Aebi Schmidt Holding AG | 11.22 | 7.24 | -55% | 24No options | $871M |
| WNC Wabash National Corporation | 12.98 | 7.18 | -81% | 36Weak | $529M |
| TWI Titan International, Inc. | 6.71 | 15.65 | +57% | 45Weak | $433M |
| DE Deere & Company | 650.67 | 343.91 | -89% | 63Fair | $175.4B |
| CAT Caterpillar Inc. | 735.64 | 429.54 | -71% | 67Good | $338.2B |
| ARTW Art's-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 3.21 | 0.4222 | -661% | 17No options | $17M |
| CLEV Concrete Leveling Systems, Inc. | 0.7100 | - | - | 33No options | $10M |
| HYFM Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. | 0.7798 | - | - | 24No options | $4M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FSS
Is FSS undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 113.47 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 120.11 (5.5% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of FSS and what does it mean?
FSS scores 78 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FSS?
120.11 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Federal Signal Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FSS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 250 listed contracts with 1,427 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.