Stock fact sheet · data as of
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Software - Application · United States · Blend
Is ALRM undervalued?
ALRM has a margin of safety of 37%: the stock closed at 57.64 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 91.22. 4 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 18.54 while Payback Time gives 188.53. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ALRM under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ALRM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 154.10 | +167% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 30.70 | -47% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 56.12 | -3% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 18.54 | -68% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 142.18 | +147% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 113.01 | +96% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 188.53 | +227% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 26.56 | -54% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.0705 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 62.50 | +8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health ALRM scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.7%, ROE 15.6%, ROA 6.1% - with debt at 1.34 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.4%.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from License and Service 68%, Hardware and Other Revenue 32% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.5 / 10 | ROE | 15.6% |
| Debt / equity | 1.34 | ROA | 6.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 85: Prime
ALRM scores 85 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20).
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 683 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 628k shares a day on a market cap of $2.8B, with a beta of 0.76 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 37% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 628k shares/day, $2.8B cap, beta 0.76 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIFX Life360, Inc. | 11.82 | 11.09 | -7% | 37No options | $2.9B |
| KC Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited | 8.84 | 187.92 | +95% | 45Weak | $2.6B |
| GRND Grindr Inc. | 15.10 | 28.83 | +48% | 89Prime | $2.6B |
| FIVN Five9, Inc. | 35.10 | 31.94 | -10% | 63Fair | $2.6B |
| SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. | 85.27 | 86.96 | +2% | 79Good | $3.1B |
| WIX Wix.com Ltd. | 74.31 | 186.00 | +60% | 45Weak | $3.1B |
| AGYS Agilysys, Inc. | 113.42 | 73.75 | -54% | 59Fair | $3.2B |
| PLUS ePlus inc. | 94.75 | 50.08 | -89% | 58Fair | $2.5B |
| VIA Via Transportation, Inc. | 31.35 | 30.40 | -3% | 45Weak | $2.4B |
| ADEA Adeia Inc. | 21.74 | 21.03 | -3% | 66Good | $2.4B |
| INTA Intapp, Inc. | 43.63 | 43.07 | -1% | 45Weak | $3.3B |
| ASAN Asana, Inc. | 10.42 | 9.56 | -9% | 45Weak | $2.4B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ALRM
Is ALRM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 57.64 the stock is 37% below the average fair value of 91.22 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ALRM and what does it mean?
ALRM scores 85 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ALRM?
91.22 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ALRM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 184 listed contracts with 683 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.