Stock fact sheet · data as of
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts · United States · Value
Is ALSN undervalued?
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) closed at 112.55 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 150.45, so the price sits 25% below it. 4 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 16.77 while Payback Time gives 297.69. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ALSN under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for ALSN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 80.74 | -28% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 58.47 | -48% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 256.56 | +128% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 104.11 | -8% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 239.57 | +113% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 229.30 | +104% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 297.69 | +164% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 16.77 | -85% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 70.82 | -37% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -23.99 | -121% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 127.00 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ALSN passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.0%, ROE 33.4%, ROA 10.2% - with debt at 1.56 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.9%.
The dividend yield is 1.01% with a payout ratio of 18% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Service Parts Support Equipment And Oth… 69%, Defense 31% (quarter Q4 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 33.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.56 | ROA | 10.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.9% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 79: Good
ALSN scores 79 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 23/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (9/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20). Health (11/20) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,660 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 510k shares a day on a market cap of $9.3B, with a beta of 0.98; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 25% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 510k shares/day, $9.3B cap, beta 0.98 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Auto - Parts
The 12 companies below are the closest to Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Auto - Parts industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APTV Aptiv PLC | 45.19 | 57.86 | +22% | 84Prime | $9.4B |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | 115.96 | 186.41 | +38% | 87Prime | $8.5B |
| BWA BorgWarner Inc. | 58.67 | 51.81 | -13% | 73Good | $11.9B |
| MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. | 7.43 | 6.31 | -18% | 45Weak | $6.3B |
| LEA Lear Corporation | 121.49 | 231.62 | +48% | 79Good | $6.0B |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | 22.36 | 35.96 | +38% | 82Prime | $5.7B |
| MGA Magna International Inc. | 66.41 | 83.75 | +21% | 83Prime | $17.8B |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | 133.51 | 36.16 | -269% | 61Fair | $18.4B |
| GTX Garrett Motion Inc. | 24.45 | 27.54 | +11% | 76Good | $4.6B |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | 21.11 | 35.91 | +41% | 93Prime | $4.4B |
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | 123.63 | 160.86 | +23% | 84Prime | $3.7B |
| ATMU Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 43.98 | 37.08 | -19% | 65Good | $3.6B |
⚖ Compare ALSN with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ALSN
Is ALSN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 112.55 the stock trades 25% below the average fair value of 150.45 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of ALSN and what does it mean?
ALSN scores 79 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ALSN?
150.45 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ALSN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 264 listed contracts with 2,660 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.