Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MBLY undervalued?

MBLY closed at 7.43 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 18% above the GLS average fair value of 6.31 from 2 models. 1 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.

Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files MBLY under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for MBLY

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: MBLY passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -3.3%, ROE -3.3%, ROA -3.1% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.2%.

Mobileye Global Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Mobileye 98%, Other Operating 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

MBLY scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 5/25, Health 7/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 19/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 67% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 267,991 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 6.0M shares a day on a market cap of $6.3B, with a beta of 1.24 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Mobileye Global Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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