Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Communication Equipment · United States · Blend
Is ARLO undervalued?
At 12.44 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ARLO trades 27% over the GLS average fair value of 9.76. 3 of the 8 models land above the price and 5 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (1 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 2.75 while Payback Time gives 23.30. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ARLO under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ARLO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 9.97 | -20% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 3.05 | -75% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 7.72 | -38% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.75 | -78% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 14.89 | +20% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 13.25 | +6% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 23.30 | +87% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 3.14 | -75% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.7228 | -94% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 18.67 | +50% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ARLO passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.1%, ROE 11.7%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 0.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.0%.
Arlo Technologies, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Subscriptions And Services 60%, Product 40% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 11.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.6 / 10 | ROE | 11.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.05 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 51: Fair
ARLO scores 51 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 1/25, Health 13/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 15/20. Value (1/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 69% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 8,102 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.6M shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 1.60 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 1 / 25 | -27% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.6/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 69% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 2.6M shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 1.60 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Communication Equipment
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arlo Technologies, Inc. by market cap within the Communication Equipment industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VISN Vistance Networks, Inc. | 5.90 | 51.45 | +89% | 76Good | $1.4B |
| HLIT Harmonic Inc. | 10.58 | 3.00 | -253% | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| FUNR Funr | 0.2256 | 0.0000 | -683243% | 14No options | $2.3B |
| FEIM Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 69.98 | 11.88 | -489% | 43Weak | $789M |
| CALX Calix, Inc. | 37.19 | 27.94 | -33% | 55Fair | $2.3B |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | 71.75 | 44.59 | -61% | 58Fair | $2.7B |
| NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | 22.31 | 2.44 | -814% | 44Weak | $606M |
| EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | 22.40 | 6.17 | -263% | 59Fair | $3.0B |
| GILT Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. | 8.05 | 10.78 | +25% | 71Good | $598M |
| ADTN ADTRAN Holdings Inc. | 6.53 | 18.03 | +64% | 45Weak | $532M |
| ONDS Ondas Holdings Inc. | 6.35 | 9.04 | +30% | 45Weak | $3.7B |
| BDC Belden Inc. | 104.22 | 100.11 | -4% | 72Good | $4.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARLO
Is ARLO undervalued right now?
No: at 12.44 the stock trades 27% above the GLS average fair value of 9.76 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of ARLO and what does it mean?
ARLO scores 51 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARLO?
9.76 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arlo Technologies, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARLO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 188 listed contracts with 8,102 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 69% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.