Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ONDS undervalued?

Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) closed at 6.35 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 5 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 9.04, so the price sits 30% below it. 2 of the 5 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.

The 5 models disagree widely: EPV gives 3.72 while GLS Growth gives 20.49. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files ONDS under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for ONDS

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: ONDS passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -29.3%, ROE -30.2%, ROA -11.6% - with debt at 0.03 times equity and negative free cash flow.

Ondas Holdings Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product Revenue 81%, Development Revenue 19% (quarter Q2 FY2022).

Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

ONDS scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 13/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 78% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (16 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 1,627,130 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 74.4M shares a day on a market cap of $3.7B, with a beta of 2.92 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (before the open), 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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