Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AVAL undervalued?

AVAL has a margin of safety of 100%: the stock closed at 4.90 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 5,904.36. 8 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

The 8 models disagree widely: EPV gives 5.11 while 10 Cap gives 38,098.45. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files AVAL under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.

Nine valuation models for AVAL

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health AVAL scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.8%, ROE 8.7%, ROA 0.5% - with debt at 3.72 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.3%. Debt of 3.72 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is 3.47% at a payout ratio of 37%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Hotel 100% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 39: No options

AVAL has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at 179k shares a day on a market cap of $5.8B, with a beta of 0.38 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 2 Nov 2026 (0.0165 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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