Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AXON undervalued?

AXON closed at 417.19 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 66.90. Only 0 of the 7 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.

The 7 models disagree widely: EPV gives 27.59 while Graham Growth gives 142.04. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files AXON under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for AXON

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - AXON passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.4%, ROE 3.9%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 0.59 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.4%.

Axon Enterprise, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Software And Sensors 44%, Taser X2 29%, Platform Solutions 17% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 49: Weak

AXON scores 49 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 17/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 74% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (16 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 16,459 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 906k shares a day on a market cap of $33.9B, with a beta of 1.44 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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The 12 companies below are the closest to Axon Enterprise, Inc. by market cap within the Aerospace & Defense industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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