Stock fact sheet · data as of
Azul S.A. (AZUL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Brazil · ADR · Blend
Is AZUL undervalued?
Azul S.A. (AZUL) closed at 6.87 on 16 Oct 2026, 1734% above the GLS average fair value of 0.3746. 5 of the 5 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 5 models disagree widely: EPV gives 0.1252 while Graham Growth gives 0.6444. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AZUL under Blend.
Nine valuation models for AZUL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 0.5312 | -92% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 0.6444 | -91% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.2816 | -96% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.2905 | -96% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.1252 | -98% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -251.52 | -3761% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 11.00 | +60% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AZUL passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.8%, ROE -0.4%, ROA 0.5% - with debt at -1.23 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Azul S.A. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Passenger revenue 92%, Cargo transport and other revenue 8% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.5 / 10 | ROE | -0.4% |
| Debt / equity | -1.23 | ROA | 0.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -2.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 18: Weak
AZUL scores 18 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 0/20, Stability 5/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
No implied volatility is recorded for AZUL - the nightly snapshot found no near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - so the Premium part of the Wheel Score is zero. Chain open interest is 17,866 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 227k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 7.12 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 5 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -1734% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.5/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 5 / 20 | 227k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 7.12 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (before the open), 25 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Airlines, Airports & Air Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Azul S.A. by market cap within the Airlines, Airports & Air Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | 3.15 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 4.88 | - | - | 43Weak | $1.1B |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | 70.40 | 76.85 | +8% | 62Fair | $1.9B |
| PHIG PHI Group, Inc. | 31.00 | 30.16 | -3% | 24No options | $754M |
| RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc. | 15.76 | 19.33 | +18% | 39No options | $738M |
| VLRS Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. | 5.94 | 94.66 | +94% | 45Weak | $683M |
| SKYW SkyWest, Inc. | 92.43 | 257.98 | +64% | 87Prime | $3.6B |
| CAAP Corporacion America Airports S.A. | 24.66 | 65.37 | +62% | 80Prime | $4.0B |
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | 36.50 | - | - | 45Weak | $4.1B |
| OMAB Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | 91.33 | 555.31 | +84% | 82Prime | $4.4B |
| JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. | 4.81 | 0.2622 | -1734% | 40Weak | $4.8B |
| CPA Copa Holdings, S.A. | 133.91 | 315.20 | +58% | 83Prime | $5.5B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AZUL
Is AZUL undervalued right now?
No: at 6.87 the stock trades 1734% above the GLS average fair value of 0.3746 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AZUL and what does it mean?
AZUL scores 18 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AZUL?
0.3746 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Azul S.A. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (before the open), 25 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AZUL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 22 listed contracts with 17,866 open interest across all expiries. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.