Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ULCC undervalued?

At 4.88 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ULCC has no GLS fair value: every one of the nine models needs a positive input (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -1.69, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so the margin of safety is blank and the Wheel Score cannot be computed. Our screens leave the stock out at the first rule. What can be said from the nightly row is below.

The nightly engine files ULCC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for ULCC

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. scores only 2 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 0.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.3%, ROE -27.9%, ROA -1.9% - with debt at 11.13 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 11.13 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Passenger 39%, Non Fare Passenger Revenue 20%, Aircraft Fare 20% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 43: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 43 Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 13/25, Health 4/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 11/20 - show where: Moat (1/15) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 85% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (14 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 18,579 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 5.6M shares a day on a market cap of $1.1B, with a beta of 2.65 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Airlines, Airports & Air Services

The 12 companies below are the closest to Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Airlines, Airports & Air Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare ULCC with 7 of them   All Industrials stocks →