Stock fact sheet · data as of
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Coal · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is BTU undervalued?
BTU has a margin of safety of 62%: the stock closed at 24.02 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 63.42. 2 of the 3 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The average is built from just 3 models (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files BTU under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for BTU
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 100.50 | +318% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 85.36 | +255% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 4.41 | -82% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -5.47 | -123% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 30.50 | +27% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Peabody Energy Corporation scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -1.3%, ROE -1.5%, ROA -0.9% - with debt at 0.14 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 15.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.25% with a payout ratio of -20% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Thermal Coal 62%, Metallurgical Coal 36%, Product 3% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.3 / 10 | ROE | -1.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.14 | ROA | -0.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 15.5% | Payout ratio | -20% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Peabody Energy Corporation sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20 - show where: Moat (2/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 62% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (20 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 133,196 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.3M shares a day on a market cap of $2.9B, with a beta of 0.28 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 62% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 62% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 2.3M shares/day, $2.9B cap, beta 0.28 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Peabody Energy Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Coal
The 12 companies below are the closest to Peabody Energy Corporation by market cap within the Coal industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLP Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. | 25.19 | 39.96 | +37% | 74Good | $3.2B |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | 169.71 | 217.44 | +22% | 45Weak | $2.2B |
| CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | 89.00 | 185.62 | +52% | 78Good | $4.4B |
| HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 89.46 | 62.46 | -43% | 51Fair | $4.7B |
| NRP Natural Resource Partners L.P. | 111.62 | 131.71 | +15% | 64Fair | $1.5B |
| METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. | 8.34 | 1.06 | -685% | 35Weak | $480M |
| METCZ Ramaco Resources, Inc. | 24.78 | 1.06 | -2234% | 19No options | $478M |
| METCB Ramaco Resources, Inc. | 4.15 | 1.06 | -291% | 19No options | $354M |
| NC NACCO Industries, Inc. | 33.62 | 25.56 | -32% | 19No options | $254M |
| CODQL Coronado Global Resources Inc. | 0.1200 | 0.2752 | +56% | 38No options | $201M |
| PDER Pardee Resources Company | 299.00 | 193.81 | -54% | 21No options | $195M |
| AREC American Resources Corporation | 1.20 | 16.92 | +93% | 57Fair | $128M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BTU
Is BTU undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 24.02 the stock is 62% below the average fair value of 63.42 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of BTU and what does it mean?
BTU scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BTU?
63.42 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Peabody Energy Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BTU have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 758 listed contracts with 133,196 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 62% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.