Stock fact sheet · data as of
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Coal · United States · Blend
Is HCC undervalued?
HCC closed at 89.46 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 62.46. Only 2 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 9 models disagree widely: Payback Time gives 2.23 while Graham Growth gives 237.46. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HCC under Blend.
Nine valuation models for HCC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 52.71 | -41% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 63.63 | -29% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 237.46 | +165% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 103.79 | +16% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 12.15 | -86% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 39.38 | -56% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 2.23 | -98% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.71 | -95% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 46.13 | -48% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 3.37 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 102.00 | +14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HCC passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.4%, ROE 2.7%, ROA 2.0% - with debt at 0.13 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.1%.
The dividend yield is 0.36% with a payout ratio of 8% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Product 99%, Product and Service, Other 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.0 / 10 | ROE | 2.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.13 | ROA | 2.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.1% | Payout ratio | 8% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 51: Fair
HCC scores 51 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 15/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 55% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 17,748 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 496k shares a day on a market cap of $4.7B, with a beta of 0.74 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -43% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 55% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 496k shares/day, $4.7B cap, beta 0.74 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Coal
The 12 companies below are the closest to Warrior Met Coal, Inc. by market cap within the Coal industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | 89.00 | 185.62 | +52% | 78Good | $4.4B |
| ARLP Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. | 25.19 | 39.96 | +37% | 74Good | $3.2B |
| BTU Peabody Energy Corporation | 24.02 | 63.42 | +62% | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | 169.71 | 217.44 | +22% | 45Weak | $2.2B |
| NRP Natural Resource Partners L.P. | 111.62 | 131.71 | +15% | 64Fair | $1.5B |
| METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. | 8.34 | 1.06 | -685% | 35Weak | $480M |
| METCZ Ramaco Resources, Inc. | 24.78 | 1.06 | -2234% | 19No options | $478M |
| METCB Ramaco Resources, Inc. | 4.15 | 1.06 | -291% | 19No options | $354M |
| NC NACCO Industries, Inc. | 33.62 | 25.56 | -32% | 19No options | $254M |
| CODQL Coronado Global Resources Inc. | 0.1200 | 0.2752 | +56% | 38No options | $201M |
| PDER Pardee Resources Company | 299.00 | 193.81 | -54% | 21No options | $195M |
| AREC American Resources Corporation | 1.20 | 16.92 | +93% | 57Fair | $128M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HCC
Is HCC undervalued right now?
No: at 89.46 the stock trades 43% above the GLS average fair value of 62.46 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of HCC and what does it mean?
HCC scores 51 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HCC?
62.46 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Warrior Met Coal, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HCC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 264 listed contracts with 17,748 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 55% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.