Stock fact sheet · data as of
Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc. (CAF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is CAF undervalued?
CAF has a margin of safety of 92%: the stock closed at 17.05 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 217.91. 5 of the 7 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 7 models disagree widely: DDM gives 3.87 while Graham Growth gives 573.53. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CAF under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for CAF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 13.13 | -23% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 75.45 | +342% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 573.53 | +3264% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 250.67 | +1370% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 497.32 | +2817% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 3.87 | -77% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 111.41 | +553% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.2387 | -99% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: CAF passes 0 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 21.3%, ROE 21.3%, ROA 21.2% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 1.54% at a payout ratio of 0%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.1 / 10 | ROE | 21.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 21.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: Weak
CAF scores 39 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 25/25, Health 0/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 6/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 127%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 71 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 40k shares a day on a market cap of $291M, with a beta of 0.38 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 92% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.1/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 127% | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 40k shares/day, $291M cap, beta 0.38 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for CAF in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc. by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MXF The Mexico Fund, Inc. | 20.19 | 152.63 | +87% | 39No options | $291M |
| JCE Nuveen Core Equity Alpha Fund | 17.15 | 76.97 | +78% | 34No options | $292M |
| FUND Sprott Focus Trust, Inc. | 9.76 | 64.98 | +85% | 34No options | $290M |
| FRMO FRMO Corp. | 6.63 | 39.45 | +83% | 39No options | $292M |
| PSBD Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. | 9.55 | 16,252.65 | +100% | 39No options | $293M |
| AGD abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund | 11.24 | 70.93 | +84% | 39No options | $294M |
| CFNB California First Leasing Corporation | 1,586.17 | 23,788.81 | +93% | 39No options | $285M |
| GECCG Great Elm Capital Corp. 7.75% Notes Due 2030 | 24.54 | 55.78 | +56% | 34No options | $284M |
| TNBIX 1290 SmartBeta Equity Fund Class I | 21.59 | 7.36 | -193% | 20No options | $282M |
| MPAIX Morgan Stanley Insti Fd Advantage Portfolio Cl I | 28.00 | 0.1072 | -26021% | 20No options | $300M |
| EFR Eaton Vance Senior Floating-Rate Trust | 10.19 | 33.51 | +70% | 39No options | $301M |
| AFB AllianceBernstein National Municipal Income Fund | 9.76 | 14.94 | +35% | 39No options | $281M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CAF
Is CAF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 17.05 the stock is 92% below the average fair value of 217.91 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of CAF and what does it mean?
CAF scores 39 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CAF?
217.91 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for CAF in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does CAF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 62 listed contracts with 71 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 127% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.