Stock fact sheet · data as of
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is CBSH undervalued?
At 55.56 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CBSH trades 33% below the GLS average fair value of 82.71. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 3 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Commerce Bancshares, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 16.19 while Payback Time gives 201.84. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CBSH under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for CBSH
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 50.12 | -10% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 52.42 | -6% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 105.23 | +89% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 36.62 | -34% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 45.89 | -17% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 191.16 | +244% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 201.84 | +263% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 16.19 | -71% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 44.93 | -19% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -133.87 | -341% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 67.00 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CBSH passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.3%, ROE 14.9%, ROA 1.7% - with debt at 0.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.9%.
The dividend yield is 1.98% at a payout ratio of 27%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Commission Income 54%, Managed Account Services 46% (fiscal year FY2022).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 22 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.5 / 10 | ROE | 14.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.79 | ROA | 1.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.9% | Payout ratio | 27% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 83: Prime
CBSH scores 83 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (17/20).
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 377 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 820k shares a day on a market cap of $8.0B, with a beta of 0.59 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 33% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 37% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 820k shares/day, $8.0B cap, beta 0.59 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Commerce Bancshares, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBC Central Bancompany | 33.25 | 24.85 | -34% | 58Fair | $8.0B |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 66.74 | 100.72 | +34% | 84Prime | $8.0B |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | 72.22 | 147.19 | +51% | 82Prime | $7.9B |
| BPOPO Popular, Inc. | 25.20 | 108.12 | +77% | 39No options | $8.1B |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | 28.63 | 48.03 | +40% | 84Prime | $8.3B |
| BOKF BOK Financial Corporation | 125.00 | 224.10 | +44% | 83Prime | $7.6B |
| ZIONP Zions Bancorporation, National Association | 16.99 | 75.18 | +77% | 39No options | $9.0B |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | 61.78 | 119.09 | +48% | 90Prime | $9.0B |
| VLYPN Valley National Bancorp | 24.84 | 32.95 | +25% | 39No options | $6.9B |
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | 12.41 | 20.97 | +41% | 83Prime | $6.9B |
| WBHC Wilson Bank Holding Company | 550.00 | 118.88 | -363% | 32No options | $6.8B |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | 141.02 | 241.84 | +42% | 81Prime | $9.5B |
⚖ Compare CBSH with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CBSH
Is CBSH undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 55.56 the stock is 33% below the average fair value of 82.71 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of CBSH and what does it mean?
CBSH scores 83 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CBSH?
82.71 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Commerce Bancshares, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (before the open), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CBSH have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 114 listed contracts with 377 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.