Stock fact sheet · data as of
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · United States · Value
Is CCL undervalued?
CCL has a margin of safety of 54%: the stock closed at 26.46 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 57.33. 5 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 8 models disagree widely: DDM gives 6.62 while GLS Growth gives 140.90. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CCL under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for CCL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 23.22 | -12% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 77.43 | +193% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 29.81 | +13% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 140.90 | +433% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 62.83 | +137% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 92.27 | +249% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 6.62 | -75% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 25.57 | -3% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -26.17 | -199% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 33.16 | +25% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CCL passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.9%, ROE 22.5%, ROA 5.3% - with debt at 2.28 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.9%. Debt of 2.28 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.70% at a payout ratio of 20%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Tour And Other 66%, Cruise 35% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 22.5% |
| Debt / equity | 2.28 | ROA | 5.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.9% | Payout ratio | 20% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
CCL scores 81 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20).
Implied volatility is 40% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 1,047,666 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 18.3M shares a day on a market cap of $35.6B, with a beta of 2.38 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 54% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 40% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 18.3M shares/day, $35.6B cap, beta 2.38 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 18 Dec 2026, 63 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Travel Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Carnival Corporation & plc by market cap within the Travel Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | 82.60 | 91.28 | +10% | 77Good | $36.9B |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | 291.87 | 528.89 | +45% | 92Prime | $33.4B |
| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | 38.88 | 286.58 | +86% | 88Prime | $25.3B |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 274.33 | 343.28 | +20% | 79Good | $73.6B |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | 174.28 | 132.55 | -31% | 65Good | $104.4B |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | 165.80 | 284.93 | +42% | 88Prime | $124.6B |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | 15.39 | 35.85 | +57% | 80Prime | $7.1B |
| MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | 46.78 | 24.42 | -92% | 57Fair | $4.4B |
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | 62.63 | 100.40 | +38% | 80Prime | $3.8B |
| LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 35.47 | 37.13 | +4% | 45Weak | $2.3B |
| PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc. | 53.34 | 34.57 | -54% | 51Fair | $1.5B |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | 8.93 | 17.55 | +49% | 83Prime | $1.0B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CCL
Is CCL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 26.46 the stock is 54% below the average fair value of 57.33 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of CCL and what does it mean?
CCL scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CCL?
57.33 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Carnival Corporation & plc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 18 Dec 2026, 63 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CCL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 818 listed contracts with 1,047,666 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 40% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.