Stock fact sheet · data as of
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · United States · Value
Is NCLH undervalued?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) closed at 15.39 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 5 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 35.85, which puts the price 57% below it. 3 of the 5 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (10.55) and GLS Growth (101.44). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NCLH under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for NCLH
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 14.45 | -6% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 34.41 | +124% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 10.55 | -31% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 101.44 | +559% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 18.41 | +20% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -41.80 | -372% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 20.86 | +36% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.5%, ROE 19.2%, ROA 1.9% - with debt at 6.61 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 6.61 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Passenger ticket 66%, Onboard and other 35% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.4 / 10 | ROE | 19.2% |
| Debt / equity | 6.61 | ROA | 1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -16.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 80: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 80, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 55% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 604,845 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 19.1M shares a day on a market cap of $7.1B, with a beta of 1.96 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 57% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 55% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 19.1M shares/day, $7.1B cap, beta 1.96 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Travel Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. by market cap within the Travel Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | 46.78 | 24.42 | -92% | 57Fair | $4.4B |
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | 62.63 | 100.40 | +38% | 80Prime | $3.8B |
| LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 35.47 | 37.13 | +4% | 45Weak | $2.3B |
| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | 38.88 | 286.58 | +86% | 88Prime | $25.3B |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | 291.87 | 528.89 | +45% | 92Prime | $33.4B |
| PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc. | 53.34 | 34.57 | -54% | 51Fair | $1.5B |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | 26.46 | 57.33 | +54% | 81Prime | $35.6B |
| VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | 82.60 | 91.28 | +10% | 77Good | $36.9B |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | 8.93 | 17.55 | +49% | 83Prime | $1.0B |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 274.33 | 343.28 | +20% | 79Good | $73.6B |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | 174.28 | 132.55 | -31% | 65Good | $104.4B |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | 165.80 | 284.93 | +42% | 88Prime | $124.6B |
⚖ Compare NCLH with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NCLH
Is NCLH undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 15.39 the stock is 57% below the average fair value of 35.85 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NCLH and what does it mean?
NCLH scores 80 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NCLH?
35.85 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NCLH have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 572 listed contracts with 604,845 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 55% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.