Stock fact sheet · data as of
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · United States · Value
Is EXPE undervalued?
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) closed at 291.87 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 528.89, which puts the price 45% below it. 4 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 27.07 while Payback Time gives 1,607.83. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files EXPE under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for EXPE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 202.26 | -31% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 61.49 | -79% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 560.36 | +92% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 215.05 | -26% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 953.16 | +227% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 945.85 | +224% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,607.83 | +451% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 27.07 | -91% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 186.92 | -36% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -84.77 | -129% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 335.06 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health EXPE scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.7 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.3%, ROE 100.8%, ROA 5.3% - with debt at 5.19 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 15.1%. Debt of 5.19 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 0.63% with a payout ratio of 11% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from B2C 62%, B2B 35%, trivago 3% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.7 / 10 | ROE | 100.8% |
| Debt / equity | 5.19 | ROA | 5.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 15.1% | Payout ratio | 11% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 92: Prime
EXPE scores 92 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (19/20).
Implied volatility is 61% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (20 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 55,048 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $33.4B, with a beta of 1.36 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 45% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 61% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 2.4M shares/day, $33.4B cap, beta 1.36 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Travel Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Expedia Group, Inc. by market cap within the Travel Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | 26.46 | 57.33 | +54% | 81Prime | $35.6B |
| VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | 82.60 | 91.28 | +10% | 77Good | $36.9B |
| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | 38.88 | 286.58 | +86% | 88Prime | $25.3B |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 274.33 | 343.28 | +20% | 79Good | $73.6B |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | 174.28 | 132.55 | -31% | 65Good | $104.4B |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | 165.80 | 284.93 | +42% | 88Prime | $124.6B |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | 15.39 | 35.85 | +57% | 80Prime | $7.1B |
| MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | 46.78 | 24.42 | -92% | 57Fair | $4.4B |
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | 62.63 | 100.40 | +38% | 80Prime | $3.8B |
| LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 35.47 | 37.13 | +4% | 45Weak | $2.3B |
| PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc. | 53.34 | 34.57 | -54% | 51Fair | $1.5B |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | 8.93 | 17.55 | +49% | 83Prime | $1.0B |
⚖ Compare EXPE with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EXPE
Is EXPE undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 291.87 the stock is 45% below the average fair value of 528.89 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EXPE and what does it mean?
EXPE scores 92 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for EXPE?
528.89 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Expedia Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EXPE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 55,048 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 61% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.