Century Aluminum Company (CENX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is CENX undervalued?

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) closed at 34.20 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 7 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 133.32, which puts the price 74% below it. 7 of the 7 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The 7 models disagree widely: 10 Cap gives 42.73 while GLS Growth gives 373.20. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files CENX under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for CENX

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - CENX passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.0%, ROE 5.1%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 0.66 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.5%.

Century Aluminum Company pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 76: Good

CENX scores 76 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (19/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20). Moat (6/15) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 65% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 41,978 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 2.6M shares a day on a market cap of $3.4B, with a beta of 2.08 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Aluminum

The 12 companies below are the closest to Century Aluminum Company by market cap within the Aluminum industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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