Stock fact sheet · data as of
Knife River Corporation (KNF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Construction Materials · United States · Blend
Is KNF undervalued?
KNF closed at 49.95 on 16 Oct 2026, 25% below the GLS average fair value of 66.95 from 8 models (5 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 23 of the 25 Value points.
There is a wide gap between Payback Time (22.73) and Graham Growth (137.46). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files KNF under Blend.
Nine valuation models for KNF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 125.35 | +151% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 39.65 | -21% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 137.46 | +175% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 59.81 | +20% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 61.48 | +23% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 61.73 | +24% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 22.73 | -55% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 27.41 | -45% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18.47 | -137% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 71.40 | +43% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Knife River Corporation scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability KNF scores 5.7/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.5%, ROE 9.6%, ROA 4.3% - with debt at 0.74 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.5%.
Knife River Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Ready mix concrete 37%, Aggregates 30%, Asphalt 21% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.7 / 10 | ROE | 9.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.74 | ROA | 4.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 75: Good
With a Wheel Score of 75 - the Good band - Knife River Corporation clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 23/25, Health 9/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20; Health (9/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,162 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 541k shares a day on a market cap of $2.8B, with a beta of 0.52 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 25% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 54% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 541k shares/day, $2.8B cap, beta 0.52 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Construction Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to Knife River Corporation by market cap within the Construction Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | 104.88 | 100.85 | -4% | 68Good | $3.0B |
| TTAM Titan America S.A. | 13.07 | 22.15 | +41% | 80Prime | $2.4B |
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| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | 44.37 | 39.48 | -12% | 67Good | $4.5B |
| FBIN Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 39.96 | 30.61 | -31% | 60Fair | $4.8B |
| TGLS Tecnoglass Inc. | 36.77 | 40.23 | +9% | 65Good | $1.6B |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | 170.58 | 190.85 | +11% | 76Good | $5.2B |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | 53.68 | 54.24 | +1% | 68Good | $5.8B |
| LOMA Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima | 10.12 | 1,794.37 | +99% | 72Good | $1.2B |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 171.08 | 136.82 | -25% | 64Fair | $7.0B |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | 166.59 | 158.94 | -5% | 72Good | $7.0B |
| ACA Arcosa, Inc. | 147.01 | 99.18 | -48% | 47Weak | $7.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KNF
Is KNF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 49.95 the stock trades 25% below the average fair value of 66.95 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of KNF and what does it mean?
KNF scores 75 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for KNF?
66.95 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Knife River Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KNF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 164 listed contracts with 1,162 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 54% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.