Stock fact sheet · data as of
Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is EBS undervalued?
Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) closed at 7.18 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 2 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 24.93, which puts the price 71% below it. 1 of the 2 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files EBS under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for EBS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 3.41 | -52% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 46.45 | +547% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.60 | -136% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.00 | +39% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - EBS passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.8%, ROE 10.1%, ROA 4.0% - with debt at 1.09 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 23.3%.
Emergent BioSolutions Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 97%, Contracts and Grants 3% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.0 / 10 | ROE | 10.1% |
| Debt / equity | 1.09 | ROA | 4.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 23.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
EBS scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 12/20, Stability 8/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 91% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (12 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 18,372 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 655k shares a day on a market cap of $368M, with a beta of 2.29 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 71% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.0/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 91% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 655k shares/day, $368M cap, beta 2.29 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
The 12 companies below are the closest to Emergent BioSolutions Inc. by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRNO Verano Holdings Corp | 5.14 | 41.44 | +88% | 39No options | $376M |
| TLRY Tilray Brands, Inc. | 3.14 | - | - | 45Weak | $351M |
| GLAS Glass House Brands Inc | 3.71 | 54.67 | +93% | 45Weak | $326M |
| TKNO Alpha Teknova, Inc. | 7.79 | - | - | 42Weak | $418M |
| NIKA Nika Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 0.4100 | 0.0000 | -22736543% | 15No options | $430M |
| CGC Canopy Growth Corporation | 0.7355 | - | - | 37Weak | $311M |
| KMDA Kamada Ltd. | 7.83 | 14.12 | +45% | 67Good | $452M |
| EOLS Evolus, Inc. | 7.57 | 8.80 | +14% | 45Weak | $500M |
| ELTP Elite Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.2500 | 6.20 | +96% | 39No options | $269M |
| EVO Evotec SE | 1.42 | - | - | 29No options | $504M |
| AQST Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. | 4.06 | - | - | 45Weak | $510M |
| ACB Aurora Cannabis Inc. | 4.10 | - | - | 45Weak | $260M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EBS
Is EBS undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 7.18 the stock is 71% below the average fair value of 24.93 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EBS and what does it mean?
EBS scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for EBS?
24.93 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Emergent BioSolutions Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EBS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 174 listed contracts with 18,372 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 91% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.