Evolus, Inc. (EOLS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is EOLS undervalued?

Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) closed at 7.57 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 8.80, so the price sits 14% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.

The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.

The nightly engine files EOLS under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for EOLS

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Evolus, Inc. scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -39.2%, ROE 223.5%, ROA -22.9% - with debt at -6.71 times equity and negative free cash flow.

Evolus, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 99%, Service 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 45 Evolus, Inc. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 18/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 12/20 - show where: Moat (2/15) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 73% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 17,656 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 901k shares a day on a market cap of $500M, with a beta of 1.34 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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