Stock fact sheet · data as of
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is EPM undervalued?
At 3.67 (close of 16 Oct 2026), EPM trades 52% below the GLS average fair value of 7.59. That average comes from 2 models run on the latest filings, and 2 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Evolution Petroleum Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files EPM under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for EPM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 8.12 | +121% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 7.06 | +92% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.18 | -160% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.13 | +40% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: EPM passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.1%, ROE -4.0%, ROA -1.4% - with debt at 0.94 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.9%.
The dividend yield is high at 13.08% (payout ratio -698%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Crude Oil 68%, Natural Gas 18%, Natural Gas Liquids 14% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.2 / 10 | ROE | -4.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.94 | ROA | -1.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.9% | Payout ratio | -698% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
EPM scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 8/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 80% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (15 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 5,746 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 228k shares a day on a market cap of $147M, with a beta of 0.29 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 52% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.2/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 80% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 228k shares/day, $147M cap, beta 0.29 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close), 25 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Evolution Petroleum Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLND Greenland Energy Company Common Stock | 3.45 | - | - | 37Weak | $151M |
| EP Empire Petroleum Corporation | 3.27 | - | - | 25No options | $136M |
| PED PEDEVCO Corp. | 12.81 | 89.18 | +86% | 39No options | $170M |
| EPSN Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.88 | 6.92 | +15% | 45Weak | $178M |
| AMPY Amplify Energy Corp. | 4.35 | 11.06 | +61% | 70Good | $180M |
| ANNA AleAnna, Inc. | 2.57 | 10.48 | +75% | 39No options | $105M |
| SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust | 4.58 | - | - | 45Weak | $213M |
| KGEI Kolibri Global Energy Inc. | 6.62 | 7.32 | +10% | 39No options | $238M |
| INR Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. | 13.00 | 62.22 | +79% | 71Good | $242M |
| NRT North European Oil Royalty Trust | 8.43 | 14.13 | +40% | 66Good | $77M |
| CRT Cross Timbers Royalty Trust | 12.86 | 7.07 | -82% | 21No options | $77M |
| BSIN Big Sky Industrial Inc. | 1.39 | - | - | 31No options | $73M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EPM
Is EPM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 3.67 the stock is 52% below the average fair value of 7.59 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EPM and what does it mean?
EPM scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for EPM?
7.59 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Evolution Petroleum Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close), 25 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EPM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 5,746 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 80% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.