Stock fact sheet · data as of
Epsilon Energy Ltd. (EPSN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol EPSN · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative Income
Is EPSN undervalued?
EPSN closed at 5.59 on 5 Nov 2026, 19% below the GLS average fair value of 6.92 from 2 models (1 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter, with room for a bigger discount on the Value part.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files EPSN under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for EPSN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 10.16 | +82% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 3.68 | -34% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.31 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 8.40 | +50% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: EPSN passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.1 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -3.3%, ROE -4.6%, ROA -2.5% - with debt at 0.41 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.9%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.47% (payout ratio -198%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Condensate 70%, Natural Gas 22%, Gas Gathering And Compression 8% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 21 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.1 / 10 | ROE | -4.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.41 | ROA | -2.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.9% | Payout ratio | -198% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 41: Weak
EPSN scores 41 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (605 open interest, 26 a day); and filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $169M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value good, premium strong, moat fair, health weak, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 61% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 605 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 116k shares a day on a market cap of $169M, with a beta of -0.17 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (605 open interest, 26 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $169M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Good | 19% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 61% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.1/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 100/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 26 contracts a day, 605 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta -0.17, $169M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for EPSN in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Epsilon Energy Ltd. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMPY Amplify Energy Corp. | 3.48 | 10.98 | +68% | 44Weak | $144M |
| SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust | 3.08 | - | - | 13Weak | $144M |
| PED PEDEVCO Corp. | 15.14 | 98.87 | +85% | 28No options | $201M |
| EPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation | 3.52 | 7.59 | +54% | 40Weak | $141M |
| KGEI Kolibri Global Energy Inc. | 5.81 | 8.06 | +28% | 30No options | $209M |
| INR Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. | 12.61 | 53.88 | +77% | 46Weak | $235M |
| GLND Greenland Energy Company Common Stock | 2.34 | - | - | 18Weak | $102M |
| PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation | 190.09 | 479.40 | +60% | 36No options | $301M |
| UNTC Unit Corporation | 30.60 | 48.24 | +37% | 34No options | $303M |
| REI Ring Energy, Inc. | 1.20 | 4.10 | +71% | 42Weak | $313M |
| FTW Presidio Production Company | 10.01 | 4,946.19 | +100% | 48Weak | $315M |
| EP Empire Petroleum Corporation | 2.06 | - | - | 11No options | $86M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EPSN
Is EPSN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 5.59 the stock trades 19% below the average fair value of 6.92 (data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of EPSN and what does it mean?
EPSN scores 41 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 2, 4, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for EPSN?
6.92 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Epsilon Energy Ltd. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for EPSN in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does EPSN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 8 listed contracts with 605 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 61% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.