Stock fact sheet · data as of
Elastic N.V. (ESTC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol ESTC · Technology · Software - Application · Netherlands · Growth
Is ESTC undervalued?
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) closed at 89.68 on 5 Nov 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 94.02 (4.6% below fair value). 3 of the 7 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (31.64) and GLS Growth (219.77). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, ESTC is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 26, growth score 80, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for ESTC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 46.75 | -48% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 31.64 | -65% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 134.51 | +50% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 53.53 | -40% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 219.77 | +145% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | 132.08 | +47% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 39.89 | -56% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.3871 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 90.67 | +1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Elastic N.V. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.1/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 19.7%, ROE 28.8%, ROA 11.7% - with debt at 0.46 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.7%.
Elastic N.V. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Subscription 94%, Professional Services 6% (quarter Q1 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 28.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.46 | ROA | 11.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 35: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 35 Elastic N.V. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 75% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 32,048 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.0M shares a day on a market cap of $9.4B, with a beta of 0.97; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 5% below fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 75% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 87/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 822 contracts a day, 32,048 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.97, $9.4B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Elastic N.V. reports earnings on 19 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Analysts upgraded ESTC 1 time in the last 30 days with no downgrades; the latest action was an upgrade by Monness on 9 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to Elastic N.V. by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YMM Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | 9.01 | 14.03 | +36% | 51Fair | $9.4B |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | 170.96 | 185.42 | +8% | 73Good | $8.9B |
| GTLB GitLab Inc. | 52.37 | 29.62 | -77% | 32Weak | $8.7B |
| FROG JFrog Ltd. | 86.34 | 19.33 | -347% | 30Weak | $10.5B |
| TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc. | 87.76 | 70.89 | -24% | 36Weak | $8.5B |
| APPF AppFolio Inc. | 236.85 | 178.82 | -32% | 41Weak | $8.4B |
| FIG Figma, Inc. | 22.13 | 9.67 | -129% | 29Weak | $10.8B |
| DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc. | 94.74 | 65.94 | -44% | 42Weak | $8.1B |
| HUBS HubSpot, Inc. | 216.41 | 190.18 | -14% | 28Weak | $11.1B |
| ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | 31.78 | 19.96 | -59% | 35Weak | $7.9B |
| IDCC InterDigital, Inc. | 308.50 | 257.93 | -20% | 37Weak | $7.9B |
| CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 29.87 | 11.48 | -160% | 36Weak | $11.3B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ESTC
Is ESTC undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 89.68 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 94.02 (4.6% below fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of ESTC and what does it mean?
ESTC scores 35 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for ESTC?
94.02 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Elastic N.V. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026 (after the close), 14 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ESTC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 90 listed contracts with 32,048 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 75% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.