Stock fact sheet · data as of
AppFolio Inc. (APPF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Software - Application · United States · High Growth
Is APPF undervalued?
APPF closed at 218.61 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 30% above the GLS average fair value of 168.63 from 8 models. 5 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (38.42) and Payback Time (299.77). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files APPF under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for APPF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 185.05 | -15% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 38.42 | -82% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 234.09 | +7% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 100.87 | -54% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 271.32 | +24% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 170.25 | -22% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 299.77 | +37% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 49.24 | -77% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 4.59 | -98% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 243.00 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
AppFolio Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 7.7/10 puts APPF among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 23.0%, ROE 26.0%, ROA 19.5% - with debt at 0.13 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.5%.
AppFolio Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Value Added Services 78%, Subscription Services 21%, Other Services 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.7 / 10 | ROE | 26.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.13 | ROA | 19.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 62: Fair
A Wheel Score of 62 puts AppFolio Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 18/20 and Stability 16/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 66% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 4,087 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 538k shares a day on a market cap of $7.7B, with a beta of 0.89; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -30% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 7.7/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 66% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 538k shares/day, $7.7B cap, beta 0.89 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AppFolio Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to AppFolio Inc. by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc. | 88.64 | 64.81 | -37% | 69Good | $7.6B |
| ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | 32.27 | 19.96 | -62% | 45Weak | $8.1B |
| NICE NICE Ltd. | 114.91 | 273.14 | +58% | 87Prime | $7.1B |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | 159.10 | 180.04 | +12% | 81Prime | $8.4B |
| IDCC InterDigital, Inc. | 328.06 | 341.88 | +4% | 69Good | $8.5B |
| PCOR Procore Technologies, Inc. | 55.97 | 49.21 | -14% | 45Weak | $8.5B |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | 148.93 | 284.82 | +48% | 83Prime | $6.9B |
| TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc. | 72.69 | 66.05 | -10% | 45Weak | $6.9B |
| YMM Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | 8.54 | 26.74 | +68% | 73Good | $8.9B |
| CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | 158.91 | 49.00 | -224% | 58Fair | $6.6B |
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | 17.16 | 194.22 | +91% | 80Prime | $6.5B |
| GTLB GitLab Inc. | 55.94 | 28.91 | -94% | 45Weak | $9.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about APPF
Is APPF undervalued right now?
No: at 218.61 the stock trades 30% above the GLS average fair value of 168.63 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of APPF and what does it mean?
APPF scores 62 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for APPF?
168.63 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AppFolio Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does APPF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 328 listed contracts with 4,087 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 66% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.