Stock fact sheet · data as of
Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (EVTL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · United Kingdom · Speculative / Distressed
Is EVTL undervalued?
EVTL has a margin of safety of 99%: the stock closed at 0.4071 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 42.01. 4 of the 4 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between EPV (12.42) and Graham Growth (63.92). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files EVTL under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for EVTL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 63.92 | +15602% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 27.94 | +6763% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 63.74 | +15558% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 12.42 | +2950% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.7515 | -285% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.75 | +1312% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Vertical Aerospace Ltd. scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 332.0%, ROE -192.1%, ROA 221.9% - with debt at -1.58 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Vertical Aerospace Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Rendering of engineering consultancy se… 100% (fiscal year FY2021).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 30 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 332.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.8 / 10 | ROE | -192.1% |
| Debt / equity | -1.58 | ROA | 221.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -288.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Vertical Aerospace Ltd. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 13/20 - show where: Moat (3/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 238%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 25,222 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.8M shares a day on a market cap of $69M, with a beta of 1.55 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 99% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.8/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 238% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 5.8M shares/day, $69M cap, beta 1.55 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Aerospace & Defense
The 12 companies below are the closest to Vertical Aerospace Ltd. by market cap within the Aerospace & Defense industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FJET Starfighters Space Inc | 1.26 | 0.0800 | -1474% | 20Weak | $69M |
| OPXS Optex Systems Holdings, Inc | 9.96 | 18.75 | +47% | 39No options | $69M |
| CVU CPI Aerostructures, Inc. | 4.97 | 5.15 | +4% | 49Weak | $66M |
| SPAI Safe Pro Group Inc. Common Stock | 3.65 | 0.8392 | -335% | 15Weak | $75M |
| MNTS Momentus Inc. | 2.81 | - | - | 35Weak | $62M |
| HOVR New Horizon Aircraft Ltd | 1.41 | 1.73 | +19% | 29No options | $95M |
| PUSA Powerus Corp. | 2.13 | 1.04 | -105% | 15Weak | $46M |
| MRLN Merlin, Inc. | 1.12 | 0.0208 | -5274% | 27Weak | $108M |
| BYRN Byrna Technologies Inc. | 4.78 | 4.22 | -13% | 43Weak | $112M |
| CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 9.92 | 6.62 | -50% | 23No options | $112M |
| MOB Mobilicom Ltd | 3.25 | 0.0590 | -5405% | 17Weak | $39M |
| VWAV VisionWave Holdings, Inc. | 4.01 | - | - | 37Weak | $121M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EVTL
Is EVTL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 0.4071 the stock is 99% below the average fair value of 42.01 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EVTL and what does it mean?
EVTL scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for EVTL?
42.01 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 4 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Vertical Aerospace Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EVTL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 70 listed contracts with 25,222 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 238% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.