Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is EXEL undervalued?

At 62.83 (close of 16 Oct 2026), EXEL trades 41% below the GLS average fair value of 105.86. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Exelixis, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The 8 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 23.82 while GLS Growth gives 210.07. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files EXEL under Quality / Blue-Chip: a high moat score and a high health score together.

Nine valuation models for EXEL

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health EXEL scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 9.0 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 33.5%, ROE 36.2%, ROA 27.5% - with debt at 0.08 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.3%.

Exelixis, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Net product revenues 91%, License revenues 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 94: Prime

EXEL scores 94 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (14/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).

Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 58,441 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 2.8M shares a day on a market cap of $15.8B, with a beta of 0.42 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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