Stock fact sheet · data as of
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · High Growth
Is NBIX undervalued?
At 136.95 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NBIX trades 42% below the GLS average fair value of 236.51. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (75.81) and GLS Growth (427.63). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NBIX under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for NBIX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 303.05 | +121% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 75.81 | -45% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 314.89 | +130% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 131.34 | -4% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 427.63 | +212% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 220.48 | +61% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 341.25 | +149% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 77.61 | -43% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 11.26 | -92% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 204.18 | +49% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.1/10 puts NBIX among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.0%, ROE 14.7%, ROA 10.3% - with debt at 0.13 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.3%.
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 100%, Collaboration Revenue 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 11 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.1 / 10 | ROE | 14.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.13 | ROA | 10.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 87: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 87, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 19/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 23,124 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $13.9B, with a beta of 0.40 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 42% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 8.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 1.3M shares/day, $13.9B cap, beta 0.40 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | 214.42 | 253.97 | +16% | 80Prime | $13.9B |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | 121.51 | 84.14 | -44% | 62Fair | $13.8B |
| ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S | 226.62 | 267.55 | +15% | 70Good | $14.1B |
| BBIO BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. | 67.13 | - | - | 45Weak | $13.1B |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | 62.83 | 105.86 | +41% | 94Prime | $15.8B |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. | 15.13 | 0.2422 | -6147% | 32Weak | $12.1B |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corporation | 72.50 | 19.15 | -279% | 62Fair | $11.4B |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 56.05 | 24.83 | -126% | 59Fair | $10.8B |
| MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 459.81 | 2,351.92 | +80% | 45Weak | $10.6B |
| IBRX ImmunityBio, Inc. | 10.00 | - | - | 45Weak | $10.6B |
| PCVX Vaxcyte, Inc. | 67.55 | - | - | 45Weak | $10.4B |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | 330.00 | 294.13 | -12% | 61Fair | $9.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NBIX
Is NBIX undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 136.95 the stock is 42% below the average fair value of 236.51 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NBIX and what does it mean?
NBIX scores 87 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NBIX?
236.51 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NBIX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 712 listed contracts with 23,124 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.