Stock fact sheet · data as of
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · High Yield Income
Is FLO undervalued?
FLO has a margin of safety of 43%: the stock closed at 6.12 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 10.71. 4 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (0.6580) and 10 Cap (35.36). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files FLO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for FLO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 23.84 | +289% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 6.04 | -1% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 3.45 | -44% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.6580 | -89% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.7613 | -88% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 35.36 | +478% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 12.46 | +104% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 10.96 | +79% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 2.89 | -53% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.14 | -266% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.67 | -7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Flowers Foods, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.5%, ROE 6.4%, ROA 2.0% - with debt at 1.60 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 24.3%.
The dividend yield is high at 12.17% (payout ratio 336%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Branded Retail 64%, Other 36% (fiscal year FY2024).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.6 / 10 | ROE | 6.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.60 | ROA | 2.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 24.3% | Payout ratio | 336% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 78: Good
With a Wheel Score of 78 - the Good band - Flowers Foods, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20; Moat (5/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 59% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 36,140 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.9M shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.43 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 43% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 59% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 5.9M shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 0.43 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaged Foods
The 12 companies below are the closest to Flowers Foods, Inc. by market cap within the Packaged Foods industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTZ Utz Brands, Inc. | 14.31 | 8.65 | -65% | 45Weak | $1.3B |
| SENEB Seneca Foods Corporation | 184.29 | 585.73 | +69% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| SENEM Seneca Foods Corporation PFD $12.00 | 178.00 | 567.83 | +69% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| SENEA Seneca Foods Corporation | 181.78 | 582.74 | +69% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 78.95 | 87.19 | +9% | 68Good | $1.5B |
| HLF Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. | 14.57 | 47.90 | +70% | 74Good | $1.5B |
| NOMD Nomad Foods Limited | 11.49 | 16.68 | +31% | 84Prime | $1.6B |
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | 8.99 | 56.38 | +84% | 77Good | $1.0B |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | 10.72 | 25.09 | +57% | 45Weak | $948M |
| WEST Westrock Coffee Company, LLC | 8.07 | - | - | 45Weak | $788M |
| JBSS John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 66.11 | 71.54 | +8% | 61Fair | $773M |
| OFRM Once Upon A Farm Pbc | 17.26 | - | - | 45Weak | $725M |
⚖ Compare FLO with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FLO
Is FLO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 6.12 the stock is 43% below the average fair value of 10.71 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of FLO and what does it mean?
FLO scores 78 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FLO?
10.71 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Flowers Foods, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FLO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 76 listed contracts with 36,140 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 59% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.