Stock fact sheet · data as of
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · Value
Is HLF undervalued?
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF) closed at 14.57 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 7 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 47.90, which puts the price 70% below it. 6 of the 7 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 7 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 4.61 while 10 Cap gives 95.11. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HLF under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for HLF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 34.22 | +135% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 76.26 | +423% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 32.32 | +122% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 4.61 | -68% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 95.11 | +553% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 75.31 | +417% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 17.46 | +20% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -20.74 | -242% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 19.00 | +30% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HLF passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.5%, ROE -44.3%, ROA 8.2% - with debt at -4.54 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 28.2%.
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Weight Management 55%, Targeted Nutrition 30%, Energy Sports And Fitness 12% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | -44.3% |
| Debt / equity | -4.54 | ROA | 8.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 28.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 74: Good
HLF scores 74 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (15/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20). Moat (5/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 79% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (15 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 138,549 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 1.6M shares a day on a market cap of $1.5B, with a beta of 0.79 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 70% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 79% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 1.6M shares/day, $1.5B cap, beta 0.79 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaged Foods
The 12 companies below are the closest to Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. by market cap within the Packaged Foods industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 78.95 | 87.19 | +9% | 68Good | $1.5B |
| NOMD Nomad Foods Limited | 11.49 | 16.68 | +31% | 84Prime | $1.6B |
| FLO Flowers Foods, Inc. | 6.12 | 10.71 | +43% | 78Good | $1.3B |
| UTZ Utz Brands, Inc. | 14.31 | 8.65 | -65% | 45Weak | $1.3B |
| SENEB Seneca Foods Corporation | 184.29 | 585.73 | +69% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| SENEM Seneca Foods Corporation PFD $12.00 | 178.00 | 567.83 | +69% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| SENEA Seneca Foods Corporation | 181.78 | 582.74 | +69% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | 8.99 | 56.38 | +84% | 77Good | $1.0B |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | 41.95 | 93.45 | +55% | 71Good | $2.3B |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | 36.05 | 87.97 | +59% | 71Good | $2.3B |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | 10.72 | 25.09 | +57% | 45Weak | $948M |
| MZTI The Marzetti Company | 103.19 | 110.34 | +6% | 73Good | $2.8B |
⚖ Compare HLF with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HLF
Is HLF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 14.57 the stock is 70% below the average fair value of 47.90 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HLF and what does it mean?
HLF scores 74 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HLF?
47.90 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HLF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 554 listed contracts with 138,549 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 79% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.